🌍 1. Macro in 5 sentences

1. Interest rates / Inflation: Inflation remains moderate globally, but unevenly – the US sees slight upside risks, while the Eurozone is trending towards 2 % thanks to falling energy prices.
2. Central banks: The Fed remains data-dependent and cautious, while the ECB continues its pause and the interest rate differential with the US is likely to narrow.
3. Global economic situation: Despite geopolitical tensions and weaker labor markets, the global economy continues to show resilience, supported by technology investments and fiscal support.
4. Currencies / Geopolitics: FX markets are once again coming into sharper focus, while trade conflicts, US tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties are impacting global planning certainty.
5. Market sentiment: The mood remains constructive but vulnerable – high valuations in the AI sector and geopolitical risks could trigger volatility at any time.

📈 2. Stock Markets & ETFs

Global equities

• Global equities remain supported by robust corporate profits and strong investments in AI, cloud, and semiconductors.
• However, market breadth remains small – a few mega-caps drive large parts of the performance.

industrialized countries

• USA: Still growth drivers, supported by technology and consumption, but with increasing late-cycle signals.
• Europe: Stabilization through fiscal stimulus, especially in Germany and Spain; inflation under control.
• Japan: Monetary policy is normalizing, but yen volatility remains a risk.

Emerging markets

• China: Exports strong, domestic economy weak; government provides selective support.
• Other EM regions benefit from global demand for raw materials and technology components.

Market drivers

• AI investments
• Expected interest rate cuts over the course of the year
• Stabilizing supply chains
• Fiscal programs (USA, Europe)

Main topics of the month

• AI boom and high concentration of market performance
• Inconsistent inflation paths
• Geopolitical tensions (trade, elections, energy)

Sector trends

• Strong: Technology, semiconductors, communication, infrastructure
• Neutral: Industry, Health
• Weak: Real estate (interest rates), cyclical consumption (labor market)

Valuation & Profit Trends

• High ratings in the US, especially in the AI cluster.
• Europe and EM are cheaper, but with weaker profit momentum.

ETF perspective

Global ETFs:

• Benefiting from US tech dominance, but concentration risk increases.

Factor ETFs:

• Quality: Winner of the month – stable cash flows are preferred.
• Value: Under pressure due to speculation about interest rate cuts.
• Growth: Benefit from the AI narrative.
• Low Volatility: Stable, but less in demand.

Thematic ETFs:

• AI / Semiconductors: Continued strong capital inflows.
• Energy / Infrastructure: Supported by government programs.
• Green Tech: Inconsistent, dependent on subsidies.

🧾 3rd Fund

Development of active funds

• Funds focusing on quality growth and technology perform above average.
• European value funds are lagging behind.

Successful strategies

• Global Quality
• US Growth
• Infrastructure & Energy

Weaker strategies

• China equity fund
• Value cycles
• Real estate funds

🏦 4. Bonds

Government bonds

• Yields slightly declining, as interest rate cuts are priced in over the course of the year.

Corporate bonds

• Investment grade remains stable; high yield benefits from risk appetite, but spreads remain sensitive.

Yield curve / Spreads

• The US curve remains flat to inverted; Europe is neutralizing itself.
• Spreads are tight, but vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

Role in the portfolio

• More attractive again as a stability anchor.
• Duration can be moderately extended.

🛢️ 5. Raw materials

Oil

• Sideways to slightly higher due to geopolitical risks and stable demand.

Industrial metals

• Supported by AI infrastructure and electrification.

Agricultural commodities

• Slightly declining due to good harvests.

Overall trend

• Raw materials remain volatile, but structurally supported by infrastructure and energy transitions.

🥇 6. Precious metals

Gold

• Stable to slightly rising due to geopolitical uncertainty and expected interest rate cuts.

silver

• It also benefits from industrial demand.

demand

• Central banks remain net buyers.
• ETF inflows are rising moderately.

7. Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin / Ethereum

• Bitcoin remains stable above recent highs, supported by ETF inflows.
• Ethereum benefits from Layer-2 activity and staking narrative.

Altcoins

• Selective strength in AI and infrastructure tokens.

Capital flows / Sentiment

• Institutional demand remains high.
• Retail sentiment is improving.

Regulation

• USA: Clearer guidelines, but still politically sensitive.
• Europe: MiCA implementation is progressing.

🧭 8. What does this mean for investors?

ETF saver

Classification:

• Global ETFs remain a solid foundation, but be aware of the concentration risk in the US/Tech sector.

Opportunities:

• Quality stocks, infrastructure, global bonds.

Risks:

• AI overheating, geopolitical shocks.

Risk-taking investors

Opportunities:

• AI topics, semiconductors, selected EM stocks, crypto. Risks:
• High valuations, political risks, volatility.

Defensive investors

Stability building blocks:

• Government bonds, quality ETFs, gold. Security:
• Moderate duration, diversification across regions and sectors.