🌍 1. Macro in 5 sentences
- Interest rates / Inflation: Inflation remains moderate globally, but unevenly – the US sees slight upside risks, while the Eurozone is trending towards 2 % thanks to falling energy prices.
- Central banks: The Fed remains data-dependent and cautious, while the ECB continues its pause and the interest rate differential with the US is likely to narrow.
- Global economic situation: Despite geopolitical tensions and weaker labor markets, the global economy continues to show resilience, supported by technology investments and fiscal support.
- Currencies / Geopolitics: FX markets are once again coming into sharper focus, while trade conflicts, US tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties are impacting global planning certainty.
- Market sentiment: The mood remains constructive but vulnerable – high valuations in the AI sector and geopolitical risks could trigger volatility at any time.
📈 2. Stock Markets & ETFs
Global equities
- Global equities remain supported by robust corporate profits and strong investments in AI, cloud, and semiconductors.
- However, market breadth remains small – a few mega-caps drive large parts of the performance.
industrialized countries
- USA: Still growth drivers, supported by technology and consumption, but with increasing late-cycle signals.
- Europe: Stabilization through fiscal stimulus, especially in Germany and Spain; inflation under control.
- Japan: Monetary policy is normalizing, but yen volatility remains a risk.
Emerging markets
- China: Exports strong, domestic economy weak; government provides selective support.
- Other EM regions benefit from global demand for raw materials and technology components.
Market drivers
- AI investments
- Expected interest rate cuts over the course of the year
- Stabilizing supply chains
- Fiscal programs (USA, Europe)
Main topics of the month
- AI boom and high concentration of market performance
- Inconsistent inflation paths
- Geopolitical tensions (trade, elections, energy)
Sector trends
- Strong: Technology, semiconductors, communication, infrastructure
- Neutral: Industry, Health
- Weak: Real estate (interest rates), cyclical consumption (labor market)
Valuation & Profit Trends
- High ratings in the US, especially in the AI cluster.
- Europe and EM are cheaper, but with weaker profit momentum.
ETF perspective
Global ETFs:
- Benefiting from US tech dominance, but concentration risk increases.
Factor ETFs:
- Quality: Winner of the month – stable cash flows are preferred.
- Value: Under pressure due to speculation about interest rate cuts.
- Growth: Benefit from the AI narrative.
- Low Volatility: Stable, but less in demand.
Thematic ETFs:
- AI / Semiconductors: Continued strong capital inflows.
- Energy / Infrastructure: Supported by government programs.
- Green Tech: Inconsistent, dependent on subsidies.
🧾 3rd Fund
Development of active funds
- Funds focusing on quality growth and technology perform above average.
- European value funds are lagging behind.
Successful strategies
- Global Quality
- US Growth
- Infrastructure & Energy
Weaker strategies
- China equity fund
- Value cycles
- Real estate funds
🏦 4. Bonds
Government bonds
- Yields slightly declining, as interest rate cuts are priced in over the course of the year.
Corporate bonds
- Investment grade remains stable; high yield benefits from risk appetite, but spreads remain sensitive.
Yield curve / Spreads
- The US curve remains flat to inverted; Europe is neutralizing itself.
- Spreads are tight, but vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.
Role in the portfolio
- More attractive again as a stability anchor.
- Duration can be moderately extended.
🛢️ 5. Raw materials
Oil
- Sideways to slightly higher due to geopolitical risks and stable demand.
Industrial metals
- Supported by AI infrastructure and electrification.
Agricultural commodities
- Slightly declining due to good harvests.
Overall trend
- Raw materials remain volatile, but structurally supported by infrastructure and energy transitions.
🥇 6. Precious metals
Gold
- Stable to slightly rising due to geopolitical uncertainty and expected interest rate cuts.
silver
- It also benefits from industrial demand.
demand
- Central banks remain net buyers.
- ETF inflows are rising moderately.
7. Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin / Ethereum
- Bitcoin remains stable above recent highs, supported by ETF inflows.
- Ethereum benefits from Layer-2 activity and staking narrative.
Altcoins
- Selective strength in AI and infrastructure tokens.
Capital flows / Sentiment
- Institutional demand remains high.
- Retail sentiment is improving.
Regulation
- USA: Clearer guidelines, but still politically sensitive.
- Europe: MiCA implementation is progressing.
🧭 8. What does this mean for investors?
ETF saver
Classification:
- Global ETFs remain a solid foundation, but be aware of the concentration risk in the US/Tech sector.
Opportunities:
- Quality stocks, infrastructure, global bonds.
Risks:
- AI overheating, geopolitical shocks.
Risk-taking investors
Opportunities:
- AI topics, semiconductors, selected EM stocks, crypto. Risks:
- High valuations, political risks, volatility.
Defensive investors
Stability building blocks:
- Government bonds, quality ETFs, gold. Security:
- Moderate duration, diversification across regions and sectors.