Market analysis: January 2026

🌍 1. macro in 5 sentences

  • The markets made a surprisingly robust start to 2026, buoyed by expectations of further interest rate cuts over the course of the year.
  • Inflation remained on a downward trend, but still slightly above target - enough for central banks to act cautiously, but not restrictively.
  • The US economy continued to show solid growth, while Europe experienced moderate stabilisation.
  • China remained a factor of uncertainty, but provided slight positive impetus through fiscal measures.
  • Overall, the market environment was constructive but selective - risk assets benefited, but with an increasing spread between winners and losers.

📈 2. stock markets & ETFs

Global equities

  • Global stock markets rose in January, supported by falling yields and stable corporate profits.
  • The USA remained the strongest market, driven by tech and AI stocks.
  • Europe showed moderate gains, while emerging markets were mixed.

Market drivers

  • Expected interest rate cuts in spring/summer.
  • Strong demand for AI infrastructure and semiconductors.
  • Calming of the geopolitical situation compared to the previous quarter.

ETF perspective

  • World ETFs (MSCI World, ACWI) had a positive start to the year.
  • Growth and tech ETFs led the list of winners.
  • Value ETFs performed stably, but less dynamically.

🧾 3rd fund

  • Growth-oriented funds benefited from the strong tech performance.
  • Dividend and quality funds offered solid but less spectacular results.
  • Mixed funds performed stably, supported by positive equity markets and calm bond markets.

🏦 4. bonds

  • Yields fell slightly as the markets priced in interest rate cuts.
  • Government bonds were stable to slightly positive.
  • Corporate bonds benefited from narrower spreads and improved sentiment.
  • Long-term bonds once again became more of a focus for institutional investors.

🛢️ 5. raw materials

  • Oil prices moved sideways as supply and demand were largely balanced.
  • Industrial metals showed slight strength, supported by demand for AI infrastructure.
  • Agricultural commodities remained volatile, but without a clear trend.

🥇 6. precious metals

  • Gold rose slightly, driven by falling real interest rates and stable demand.
  • Silver showed a similar trend, but with higher volatility.
  • Central bank purchases remained a stabilising factor.

7. cryptocurrencies

  • Bitcoin and Ethereum had a positive start to the year, supported by risk appetite and ETF inflows.
  • Altcoins performed unevenly, depending on narratives and liquidity.
  • Analysts expect a more challenging environment in 2026, as the market could tend to revert to the mean after the strong previous year.

🧭 8 What does this mean for investors?

ETF saver

  • Good start to the year, but still a selective environment.
  • World ETFs remain the solid core.
  • Growth and tech strategies are benefiting more than average, but remain volatile.

Risk-taking investors

  • AI infrastructure, semiconductors and innovation topics remain strong drivers.
  • Emerging markets of selective interest (India, Korea, Taiwan).

Defensive investors

  • Bonds remain attractive, especially in the medium maturity range.
  • Gold continues to make sense as a hedging component.