🌍 1. macro in 5 sentences
- The markets made a surprisingly robust start to 2026, buoyed by expectations of further interest rate cuts over the course of the year.
- Inflation remained on a downward trend, but still slightly above target - enough for central banks to act cautiously, but not restrictively.
- The US economy continued to show solid growth, while Europe experienced moderate stabilisation.
- China remained a factor of uncertainty, but provided slight positive impetus through fiscal measures.
- Overall, the market environment was constructive but selective - risk assets benefited, but with an increasing spread between winners and losers.
📈 2. stock markets & ETFs
Global equities
- Global stock markets rose in January, supported by falling yields and stable corporate profits.
- The USA remained the strongest market, driven by tech and AI stocks.
- Europe showed moderate gains, while emerging markets were mixed.
Market drivers
- Expected interest rate cuts in spring/summer.
- Strong demand for AI infrastructure and semiconductors.
- Calming of the geopolitical situation compared to the previous quarter.
ETF perspective
- World ETFs (MSCI World, ACWI) had a positive start to the year.
- Growth and tech ETFs led the list of winners.
- Value ETFs performed stably, but less dynamically.
🧾 3rd fund
- Growth-oriented funds benefited from the strong tech performance.
- Dividend and quality funds offered solid but less spectacular results.
- Mixed funds performed stably, supported by positive equity markets and calm bond markets.
🏦 4. bonds
- Yields fell slightly as the markets priced in interest rate cuts.
- Government bonds were stable to slightly positive.
- Corporate bonds benefited from narrower spreads and improved sentiment.
- Long-term bonds once again became more of a focus for institutional investors.
🛢️ 5. raw materials
- Oil prices moved sideways as supply and demand were largely balanced.
- Industrial metals showed slight strength, supported by demand for AI infrastructure.
- Agricultural commodities remained volatile, but without a clear trend.
🥇 6. precious metals
- Gold rose slightly, driven by falling real interest rates and stable demand.
- Silver showed a similar trend, but with higher volatility.
- Central bank purchases remained a stabilising factor.
₿ 7. cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin and Ethereum had a positive start to the year, supported by risk appetite and ETF inflows.
- Altcoins performed unevenly, depending on narratives and liquidity.
- Analysts expect a more challenging environment in 2026, as the market could tend to revert to the mean after the strong previous year.
🧭 8 What does this mean for investors?
ETF saver
- Good start to the year, but still a selective environment.
- World ETFs remain the solid core.
- Growth and tech strategies are benefiting more than average, but remain volatile.
Risk-taking investors
- AI infrastructure, semiconductors and innovation topics remain strong drivers.
- Emerging markets of selective interest (India, Korea, Taiwan).
Defensive investors
- Bonds remain attractive, especially in the medium maturity range.
- Gold continues to make sense as a hedging component.