Commodity Analysis: July 2026

🛢️ Oil Market The supply side is constrained by OPEC+ production decisions, with Saudi Arabia and Russia extending their voluntary cuts into the second quarter. At the same time, US shale oil production is only increasing moderately, as investment in new drilling remains limited due to cost pressures and shareholder returns. On the demand side, global economic growth is weakening, particularly in China and Europe, which is curbing industrial oil consumption. Additionally, the structural trend towards electromobility is accelerating the substitution of crude oil in the transport sector. Inventories in OECD countries are slightly above the five-year average, indicating a relaxed physical market balance. Overall, demand-side risks predominate, keeping prices under pressure despite supply discipline. ⚙️ Industrial Metals Metal markets show a diverging trend: while industrial metals like copper suffer from cyclical concerns and a strong US dollar, precious metals like gold benefit from geopolitical uncertainties and interest rate cut expectations. Demand for aluminum is dampened by overcapacity in China, while supply bottlenecks for zinc and lead support prices. In the short term, macroeconomic …