Currency analysis: May 2026

🇺🇸 US Dollar

The US dollar opened trading on May 15, 2026, under slight selling pressure, accompanied by subdued risk appetite in Asian markets. Yesterday's Federal Reserve minutes underscored the central bank's determination to maintain a tight monetary policy in the face of persistent core inflation, initially providing some support for the greenback. However, growing uncertainty about global economic momentum, particularly from China's manufacturing sector, is weighing on demand for US assets. At the same time, the ongoing political deadlock in Washington regarding the debt ceiling is creating latent distrust in the country's fiscal stability. Yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds are trading sideways, suggesting that the market is pricing in interest rate expectations for now. A clear trend remains elusive until new economic data or clear signals from the Fed provide direction.

🇪🇺 یورو

The euro is trading slightly higher in early morning trading, supported by subdued risk appetite in Asian markets. The common currency is benefiting from a technical rebound after suffering significant losses last week. Monetary policy impulses remain scarce, as the ECB offered no new guidance at its most recent meeting. Market participants are now focusing on the upcoming inflation data from the eurozone, which could provide clues about the future path of interest rates. However, a sustained rise above the $1.10 mark appears difficult without fresh positive news. The momentum thus remains fragile and dependent on short-term shifts in sentiment.

🇨🇭 Swiss Francs

The Swiss franc maintains its role as a safe haven through a combination of political stability, low public debt, and an independent monetary policy. During periods of global uncertainty, capital flows into Switzerland, increasing demand for the franc and tending to strengthen its exchange rate. The Swiss National Bank intervenes to curb excessive appreciation and protect the export-oriented economy. This dynamic gives the franc a reliable anchor function, though it is not immune to external shocks such as sudden shifts in market risk perception. In the long term, the currency remains a haven of stability, its attractiveness bolstered by the country's solid balance sheet.