🛢️ Oil market
The supply side of the oil market is supported by the disciplined production policies of OPEC+, while US shale oil production has reached a new record high. On the demand side, the economic slowdown in China and tighter monetary policy in industrialized countries are dampening consumption growth. Inventories in OECD countries are close to their five-year average, indicating a largely balanced market. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are maintaining a risk premium, but without seriously disrupting physical supply chains. Prices are therefore trading within a narrow range, with bullish and bearish forces evenly balanced. A sustained breakout from this sideways movement would require either a significant change in production policy or an unexpected demand shock.
⚙️ Industrial metals
Metal markets are showing a subdued but stable trend. Copper is trading slightly higher, supported by ongoing supply bottlenecks from South American mining regions. Aluminum is moving sideways, while demand from the European construction sector is lagging behind expectations. A look at precious metals reveals a noticeable risk aversion among investors, driving gold to a new monthly high. Industrial metal prices are reacting cautiously to the latest economic data from China, which signals a mixed recovery in the manufacturing sector. Trading volumes on the London Metal Exchange are at an average level, suggesting a wait-and-see attitude among market participants.
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