Currency Analysis: June 2026

🇺🇸 US Dollar

The USD’s development is currently primarily supported by the diverging monetary policy of the Fed compared to other central banks, with persistent inflation fueling expectations of further interest rate hikes. At the same time, global risk aversion acts as a driver, as geopolitical tensions and economic concerns channel capital into the safe haven of the Greenback. Conversely, the USD weakens due to increasing speculation about the end of the interest rate cycle as soon as economic data softens. Additionally, high government debt and long-term fiscal imbalances weigh on the structural attractiveness of the US currency.

🇪🇺 Евро

The Euro’s dynamics are currently shaped by geopolitical risks and monetary policy divergences. The ECB continues to signal a cautious stance towards interest rate cuts, while the US Federal Reserve maintains a tighter course due to robust economic data. This leads to a sustained interest rate advantage for the US Dollar, putting pressure on the Euro. Furthermore, the fragile economic recovery in the Eurozone and uncertainty over energy supply burden the single currency. Technically, EUR/USD is moving within a narrow range, with support at 1.05 and resistance at 1.07 considered crucial levels. A sustainable recovery appears realistic only with a significant shift in the macroeconomic environment.

🇨🇭 Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc is traditionally considered a safe haven, as Switzerland has a stable political order, an independent central bank, and sound fiscal policy. In times of crisis, the flight to the Franc often leads to appreciation, which burdens the export economy. The Swiss National Bank therefore regularly intervenes in the foreign exchange market or cuts interest rates to curb excessive appreciation. In the long term, however, the Franc remains vulnerable to external shocks, particularly due to its dependence on the Eurozone as its most important trading partner. Its role as a safe haven is thus not a law of nature, but the result of active monetary policy management.