{"id":3926,"date":"2026-03-01T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-01T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mueckinvest.de\/?p=3926"},"modified":"2026-03-23T16:17:03","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T15:17:03","slug":"market-analysis-february-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mueckinvest.com\/en\/marktanalyse-februar-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Market analysis: February 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83c\udf0d 1. Macro in 5 sentences<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Interest rates \/ Inflation:<\/strong> Inflation remains moderate globally, but unevenly \u2013 the US sees slight upside risks, while the Eurozone is trending towards 2 % thanks to falling energy prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Central banks:<\/strong> The Fed remains data-dependent and cautious, while the ECB continues its pause and the interest rate differential with the US is likely to narrow.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Global economic situation:<\/strong> Despite geopolitical tensions and weaker labor markets, the global economy continues to show resilience, supported by technology investments and fiscal support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Currencies \/ Geopolitics:<\/strong> FX markets are once again coming into sharper focus, while trade conflicts, US tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties are impacting global planning certainty.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Market sentiment:<\/strong> The mood remains constructive but vulnerable \u2013 high valuations in the AI sector and geopolitical risks could trigger volatility at any time.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83d\udcc8 2. Stock Markets &amp; ETFs<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Global equities<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Global equities remain supported by robust corporate profits and strong investments in AI, cloud, and semiconductors.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>However, market breadth remains small \u2013 a few mega-caps drive large parts of the performance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">industrialized countries<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>USA:<\/strong> Still growth drivers, supported by technology and consumption, but with increasing late-cycle signals.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Europe:<\/strong> Stabilization through fiscal stimulus, especially in Germany and Spain; inflation under control.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Japan:<\/strong> Monetary policy is normalizing, but yen volatility remains a risk.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Emerging markets<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>China:<\/strong> Exports strong, domestic economy weak; government provides selective support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Other EM regions benefit from global demand for raw materials and technology components.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market drivers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>AI investments<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Expected interest rate cuts over the course of the year<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Stabilizing supply chains<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fiscal programs (USA, Europe)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Main topics of the month<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>AI boom and high concentration of market performance<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inconsistent inflation paths<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Geopolitical tensions (trade, elections, energy)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sector trends<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Strong:<\/strong> Technology, semiconductors, communication, infrastructure<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Neutral:<\/strong> Industry, Health<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Weak:<\/strong> Real estate (interest rates), cyclical consumption (labor market)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Valuation &amp; Profit Trends<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>High ratings in the US, especially in the AI cluster.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Europe and EM are cheaper, but with weaker profit momentum.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ETF perspective<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Global ETFs:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Benefiting from US tech dominance, but concentration risk increases.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Factor ETFs:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Quality:<\/strong> Winner of the month \u2013 stable cash flows are preferred.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Value:<\/strong> Under pressure due to speculation about interest rate cuts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Growth:<\/strong> Benefit from the AI narrative.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Low Volatility:<\/strong> Stable, but less in demand.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Thematic ETFs:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AI \/ Semiconductors:<\/strong> Continued strong capital inflows.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Energy \/ Infrastructure:<\/strong> Supported by government programs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Green Tech:<\/strong> Inconsistent, dependent on subsidies.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83e\uddfe 3rd Fund<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Development of active funds<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Funds focusing on quality growth and technology perform above average.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>European value funds are lagging behind.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Successful strategies<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Global Quality<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>US Growth<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Infrastructure &amp; Energy<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Weaker strategies<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>China equity fund<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Value cycles<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Real estate funds<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83c\udfe6 4. Bonds<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Government bonds<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Yields slightly declining, as interest rate cuts are priced in over the course of the year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Corporate bonds<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Investment grade remains stable; high yield benefits from risk appetite, but spreads remain sensitive.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yield curve \/ Spreads<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The US curve remains flat to inverted; Europe is neutralizing itself.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Spreads are tight, but vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Role in the portfolio<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>More attractive again as a stability anchor.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Duration can be moderately extended.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83d\udee2\ufe0f 5. Raw materials<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Oil<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Sideways to slightly higher due to geopolitical risks and stable demand.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Industrial metals<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Supported by AI infrastructure and electrification.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Agricultural commodities<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Slightly declining due to good harvests.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Overall trend<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Raw materials remain volatile, but structurally supported by infrastructure and energy transitions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83e\udd47 6. Precious metals<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gold<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Stable to slightly rising due to geopolitical uncertainty and expected interest rate cuts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">silver<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It also benefits from industrial demand.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">demand<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Central banks remain net buyers.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ETF inflows are rising moderately.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">7. Cryptocurrencies<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin \/ Ethereum<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bitcoin remains stable above recent highs, supported by ETF inflows.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ethereum benefits from Layer-2 activity and staking narrative.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Altcoins<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Selective strength in AI and infrastructure tokens.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Capital flows \/ Sentiment<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Institutional demand remains high.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Retail sentiment is improving.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Regulation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USA: Clearer guidelines, but still politically sensitive.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Europe: MiCA implementation is progressing.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83e\udded 8. What does this mean for investors?<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ETF saver<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Classification:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Global ETFs remain a solid foundation, but be aware of the concentration risk in the US\/Tech sector.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Opportunities:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Quality stocks, infrastructure, global bonds.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Risks:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>AI overheating, geopolitical shocks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Risk-taking investors<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Opportunities:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>AI topics, semiconductors, selected EM stocks, crypto. <strong>Risks:<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>High valuations, political risks, volatility.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Defensive investors<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Stability building blocks:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Government bonds, quality ETFs, gold. <strong>Security:<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Moderate duration, diversification across regions and sectors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud83c\udf0d 1. Makro in 5 S\u00e4tzen \ud83d\udcc8 2. Aktienm\u00e4rkte &amp; ETFs Globale Aktien Industriel\u00e4nder Schwellenl\u00e4nder Markttreiber Hauptthemen des Monats Sektortrends Bewertungs- &amp; Gewinntrends ETF\u2011Perspektive Welt\u2011ETFs: Faktor\u2011ETFs: Themen\u2011ETFs: \ud83e\uddfe 3. Fonds Entwicklung aktiver Fonds Gut laufende Strategien Schw\u00e4chere Strategien \ud83c\udfe6 4. Anleihen Staatsanleihen Unternehmensanleihen Zinskurve \/ Spreads Rolle im Portfolio \ud83d\udee2\ufe0f 5. Rohstoffe \u00d6l Industriemetalle Agrarrohstoffe [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"pmpro_default_level":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[117],"tags":[296,132,249],"class_list":["post-3926","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-marktanalyse","tag-geldpolitik","tag-inflation","tag-zinsen","pmpro-has-access"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mueckinvest.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3926","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mueckinvest.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mueckinvest.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mueckinvest.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mueckinvest.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3926"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/mueckinvest.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3926\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4171,"href":"https:\/\/mueckinvest.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3926\/revisions\/4171"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mueckinvest.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3926"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mueckinvest.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3926"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mueckinvest.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3926"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}